Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Grammy Winner Predictions for 2009

I've always tried my hand at predicting nominees for the Grammys, but I've never done any prognosticating as to who might win. We'll see how everything turns out this Sunday. I'll also be liveblogging the Grammys this year as well.

Record of the Year

Adele-Chasing Pavements
Coldplay-Viva La Vida
Leona Lewis-Bleeding Love
M.I.A-Paper Planes
Robert Plant & Alison Krauss-Please Read The Letter

Will win: Coldplay. This category usually rewards the most popular song and tends to lean toward more current acts.
Should win: M.I.A. The Grammys have yet to really go out on a limb and give this award to a hip and deserving act.
Overlooked: Estelle's "American Boy", Pink's "So What"

Song of the Year

Estelle Featuring Kanye West-American Boy (songwriters: William Adams, Keith Harris, Josh Lopez, Caleb Speir, John Stephens, Estelle Swaray & Kanye West)
Adele-Chasing Pavements (songwriters: Adele Adkins & Eg White)
Jason Mraz-I'm Yours (songwriter: Jason Mraz)
Sara Bareilles-Love Song (songwriter: Sara Bareilles)
Coldplay-Viva La Vida (songwriters: Guy Berryman, Jonny Buckland, Will Champion & Chris Martin)

Will win: This is Coldplay's night and I like their chances in this category as well.
Should win: "American Boy"
Overlooked: Sugarland's "Stay", Duffy's "Warwick Avenue"

Album of the Year

Coldplay-Viva La Vida Or Death And All His Friends
Lil Wayne-Tha Carter III
Ne-Yo-Year Of The Gentleman
Robert Plant & Alison Krauss-Raising Sand
Radiohead-In Rainbows

Will win: Robert Plant & Alison Krauss. The country and rock voting contingent will be too much for Coldplay, who might also split votes with Radiohead.
Should win: Call me crazy, but I actually enjoyed Coldplay's album as a whole more than the Radiohead album.
Overlooked: Erykah Badu's New Amerykah: Part 1, Al Green's Lay It Down

Best New Artist

Jonas Brothers
Lady Antebellum
Jazmine Sullivan

Will win: Adele. She's the only artist here nominated in the big four categories.
Should win: Jazmin Sullivan. Her debut was one of the most refreshing R&B albums of the year.
Overlooked: Estelle, Little Jackie, Lykke Li

Best Female Pop Vocal Performance

Adele-Chasing Pavements
Sara Bareilles-Love Song
Leona Lewis-Bleeding Love
Katy Perry-I Kissed A Girl
Pink-So What

Will win: One of the toughest of the night to call, but Adele appears to have the most momentum with her Best New Artist nod, so I'll go with her.
Should win: Pink's "So What" is the catchiest of the bunch and has the most personality.
Overlooked: M.I.A's "Paper Planes", Britney Spears' "Piece Of Me", Kate Nash's "Pumpkin Soup"

Best Pop Collaboration With Vocals

Alicia Keys & John Mayer-Lesson Learned
Madonna, Justin Timberlake & Timbaland-4 Minutes
Robert Plant & Alison Krauss-Rich Woman
Rihanna & Maroon 5-If I Never See Your Face Again
Jordin Sparks & Chris Brown-No Air

Will win: Didn't Plant and Krauss win this thing last year? This category usually rewards older acts and there is nothing else here huge enough to change that course.
Should win: Madonna, Timberlake and Timbaland.
Overlooked: Can't really think of anything else that would be concieveably overlooked, but it would have been cool if The Brighton Port Authority's "Toe Jam" featuring David Byrne and Dizzee Rascal got a nod here.

Best Dance Recording

Daft Punk-Harder Better Faster Stronger
Hot Chip-Ready For The Floor
Lady Gaga & Colby O'Donis-Just Dance
Madonna-Give It 2 Me
Sam Sparro-Black & Gold

Will win: Lady Gaga has the most momentum, so a win is likely, but Rihanna is a past Grammy favorite and that could work in her favor here as well.
Should win: Sam Sparro, for the simple fact it makes me dance the most.
Overlooked: Hercules & Love Affair's "Blind", Lykke Li's "I'm Good, I'm Gone"

Best Electronic/Dance Album

Brazilian Girls-New York City
Daft Punk-Alive 2007
Cyndi Lauper-Bring Ya To The Brink
Kylie Minogue-X
Moby-Last Night

Will win: Moby. Just for the simple fact he's the most popular among voters and is the safest choice.
Should win: Robyn, even though it's hard for me to think of it as 2008, it is still the class of this bunch.
Overlooked: Way too many. Goldfrapp's Seventh Tree, M83's Saturdays=Youth, Lykke Li's Youth Novels, Hercules & Love Affair self-titled album, Ladytron's Velocifero, Britney Spears' Blackout

Best Rock Album

Coldplay-Viva La Vida Or Death And All His Friends
Kid Rock-Rock N Roll Jesus
Kings Of Leon-Only By The Night
Metallica-Death Magnetic
The Raconteurs-Consolers Of The Lonely

Will win: Coldplay. Everyone else might as well not show up.
Should win: Coldplay
Overlooked: Weezer's Red Album

Best Alternative Music Album

Beck-Modern Guilt
Death Cab For Cutie-Narrow Stairs
Gnarls Barkley-The Odd Couple
My Morning Jacket-Evil Urges
Radiohead-In Rainbows

Will win: Radiohead is usually money in this category.
Should win: Radiohead
Overlooked: Portishead's Third, Los Campesinos'! Hold On Now, Youngster...

Best R&B Female Vocal Performance

Beyoncé-Me, Myself And I
Keyshia Cole-Heaven Sent
Jennifer Hudson-Spotlight
Alicia Keys-Superwoman
Jazmine Sullivan-Need U Bad

Will win: Although I like Jazmine Sullivan's chances, Alicia Keys and Grammy awards go together like peanut butter and jelly.
Should win: Jazmin Sullivan
Overlooked: Estelle's "No Substitute Love", Erykah Badu's "Honey". Seriously, where is "Honey"?

Best Contemporary R&B Album

Mary J. Blige-Growing Pains
J. Holiday-Back Of My Lac'
Karina-First Love
Ne-Yo-Year Of The Gentleman
Jazmine Sullivan-Fearless

Will win: Ne-Yo's nod in Album of the Year will nicely secure a win here.
Should win: Jazmine Sullivan
Overlooked: It's a crime against humanity that Erykah Badu's New Amerykah: Part 1 was not recognized here, or anywhere in the R&B categories for that matter.

Best Rap Solo Performance

Jay-Z-Roc Boys (And The Winner Is)...
Lil Wayne-A Milli
Lupe Fiasco-Paris, Tokyo
Nas-N.i.*.*.e.r. (The Slave And The Master)
Snoop Dogg-Sexual Eruption

Will win: This award and every other rap category is Lil Wayne's to lose this year.
Should win: Lil Wayne
Overlooked: Q-Tip's "Getting Up"

Best Rap Performance By A Duo or Group

Big Boi Featuring Raekwon And Andre 3000-Royal Flush
Jay-Z & T.I. Featuring Kanye West & Lil Wayne-Swagga Like Us
Lil Wayne Featuring Jay-Z-Mr. Carter
Ludacris Featuring T.I.-Wish You Would
Young Jeezy Featuring Kanye West-Put On

Will win: The line-up for "Swagga Like Us" is too huge to ignore.
Should win: Young Jeezy and Kanye West's "Put On.
Overlooked: The Knux's "Cappucino", which is performed by an actual hip hop group, not a one-off collaboration.

Best Rap Album

Jay-Z-American Gangster
Lil Wayne-Tha Carter III
Lupe Fiasco-The Cool
T.I.-Paper Trail

Will win: Lil Wayne, as if you had to ask.
Should win: American Gangster is in a class of its own amongst this group and ranks as one of Jay-Z's best.
Overlooked: Actually, this is probably as good as it gets for mainstream rap in 2008, so no real complaints here.

Best Short Form Music Video

Erykah Badu-Honey
Gnarls Barkley-Who's Gonna Save My Soul
Alicia Keys & Jack White-Another Way To Die
Radiohead-House Of Cards
Weezer-Pork And Beans

Will win: The Gnarls Barkley video is the most striking of the bunch and more people have probably seen it.
Should win: I'm very pleased with the nominees for this category overall. With the exception of the baffling Bond theme selection, everyone here is definitely worthy.
Overlooked: Vampire Weekend's "A Punk", Solange's "I Decided Part I", MGMT's "Time To Pretend"

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