Monday, December 05, 2016

2017 Grammy Nomination Predictions

The nominations for the Grammys will be announced on Dec. 6, but as is tradition, I'm taking a crack at some predictions.

Record of the Year

Adele - "Hello"
Beyonce - "Formation"
Justin Bieber - "Love Yourself "
The Chainsmokers feat. Halsey - "Closer"
Rihanna feat. Drake - "Work"

Analysis: The narrative of Beyonce vs. Adele will drive ratings, but the NARAS likes Adele and would probably prefer her to win, which is I'm including Rihanna and Drake to split votes with Bey over songs like Lukas Graham's "7 Years" and Sia's "Cheap Thrills."
Possible spoilers: Drake - "One Dance," Lukas Graham - "7 Years," Radiohead - "Burn The Witch," Rae Sremmurd feat. Gucci Mane - "Black Beatles," Sia feat. Sean Paul - "Cheap Thrills,"  Justin Timberlake feat. Anna Kendrick & James Corden - "Can't Stop The Feeling," Twenty One Pilots - "Stressed Out," The Weeknd feat. Daft Punk - "Starboy"

Song of the Year

Adele - "Hello"
Justin Bieber - "Love Yourself"
Lukas Graham - "7 Years"
Maxwell - "Lake By The Ocean"
Justin Timberlake - "Can't Stop The Feeling"

Analysis: Timberlake's team submitted the version with his Trolls co-stars for Record of the Year, so it stands a better shot here, especially with an songwriting help from Max Martin. The traditional R&B voting contingent come through for their own and Maxwell is as respected as they come.
Possible spoilers: Beyonce - "Formation," David Bowie - "Blackstar," Kelly Clarkson - "Piece By Piece," Maren Morris - "My Church"

Best New Artist

The 1975
Alessia Cara
Chance The Rapper
Maren Morris
Anderson .Paak

Analysis: Chance has been seen as a lock, but this category always has the most surprises since Grammys try to keep an eye towards longevity in addition to current commercial success. The 1975 may be too mainstream, but they're rock's best shot and Morris will get the country slot. Anderson .Paak has wowed enough people this year to be a dark horse contender.
Possible spoilers: Cam, The Chainsmokers, Lukas Graham, Shawn Mendes, Margo Price, Bryson Tiller

Album of the Year

Adele - 25
Beyonce - Lemonade
David Bowie - Blackstar
Chance The Rapper - Coloring Book
Drake - VIEWS

Analysis: The conspiracy theorist in me believes the Grammys don't want to see a Beyonce win, but they have to acknowledge her. The path to an Adele or Bowie is as easy as throwing an extra hip hop/R&B act or two and the votes cannibalize each other once again. Adele wins with this line-up, and so does Bowie. Switch Radiohead with Bowie and it would be a similar path to victory. If the Grammys really want a Bowie win, Radiohead can't be nominated with him either or the votes will be split between rock members. Drake's year was too big to be ignored and Chance is here because I doubt the NARAS wants to see Bieber in three of the night's biggest categories.
Possible spoilers: The 1975 - I Like It When You Sleep, for You Are So Beautiful yet So Unaware of It,  Justin Bieber - Purpose, James Blake - The Colour Of Everything, Bon Iver - 22, A Million, Ariana Grande - Dangerous Woman, Janet Jackson - Unbreakable, Maxwell - BlackSUMMERSNight, Sia - This Is Acting, Sturgill Simpson - A Sailor's Guide To Earth, Esperanza Spalding - Emily's D+Evolution, Radiohead - A Moon Shaped Pool, Rihanna - Anti, Kanye West - The Life of Pablo

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