Although Grammy nominations won't be announced until December and the ceremony itself doesn't take place until February 2015, it's always fun to take an early look at the current standings of who's likely to get nominated. At this point we're already 3/4 of the way through the eligibility period, so we have possibly already heard most of the nominees, but there is still a lot of time left, so don't take these predictions as definite. Once it gets closer to nomination time, I'll post my final guesses, so make sure to check back for that. For this post, I'm only examining the general field categories: Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist. Here are the current contenders for the 57th Grammy Awards, as I see it.
Album of the Year
1. Beyoncé - Beyoncé
What's in its favor: The world was turned upside down when Bey released her fifth album unannounced without any promotion and a music video created for each track. It became one of the biggest musical events of the decade. It also doesn't hurt that sales have been robust and it got not only some of the best reviews of her career, but for the year in general.
What might work against it: Albums by superstars in this category tend to have more than one big hit. So far it's only been "Drunk In Love."
2. Pharrell Williams - G I R L
What's in its favor: The momentum from all the goodwill he received during the summer of 2013 has carried over thanks to a little song called "Happy." The album has also been well-received by critics and yet to fall below #20 of the Billboard Top 200 nearly three months after its release.
What might work against it: Unless the critical reception has been absolutely astronomical, nominees here don't make it off the basis of just one song. Its chances hinge mainly on the chart performance of new single "Come Get It Bae" at this point.
3. Arcade Fire - Reflektor
What's in its favor: I've talked before about how the Grammys are trying to
slowly regain credibility by rewarding acts that are seen as hip and purveyors of quality music. Arcade Fire has one of the strongest combinations of hip and mainstream going for them, which will continue to make them perennial contenders in AOTY.
Reflektor was highly lauded upon release and in case you forgot, they actually beat out Eminem and Lady Gaga in this category a few years ago.
What might work against: The Suburbs, their past AOTY winner, was released during the summer and the surprise at its #1 debut shot them up in the eyes of the mainstream. By the time the eligibility period concluded at the end of September, the album was still relatively fresh.
Reflektor was practically released at the beginning of the eligibility period, so there's a strong case it might already be forgotten.
